The National Weather Service predicts near-normal seasonal conditions over the next three months in most of Alaska. Climate Science and Services Manager Rick Thoman says the only exceptions may be in western and northwestern Alaska, where there's a fair chance of above-normal temperatures and precipitation, and in the eastern Interior and Southeast panhandle, where there's a chance of a cooler-than-normal temperatures.
In his monthly Climate Forecast Briefing, Rick Thoman says most Alaskans will experience fairly ho-hum winter weather from January through March, with near normal temperatures and precipitation. Except for those who live along the western and northwestern portions of the state.
“We see that wet tilt across western Alaska,” Thoman said in a Thursday webcast, “… so, a 45 percent chance for significantly above-normal temperatures.”
Thoman says sea-surface temperatures remained well above normal in most of the Bering and Chukchi seas last month; and that sea-ice extent and volume, or thickness, remained well below normal. He says there’s no sea ice to speak of along Alaska’s coasts, and that there’s an area of open water extending northward into the Chukchi to around 72 degrees north latitude – which would be north of Utqiagvik, also known as Barrow.
“Now, remember,” he said, “at 72 North, they have not seen the sun in over a month at this point. And they still have open water. Really amazing.”
Thoman says temperatures in the rest of Alaska will be near-normal, except for the eastern Interior and Southeastern panhandle, where there’s a slight chance of below-normal temps.
Likewise, with precipitation. Thoman says the computer models couldn’t find much reason to hope that we’ll make up for what’s so far been a very dry winter. Except, again, out in western portion of the state, especially along the Bering Sea coast from the Seward Peninsula southward to the Yukon River delta.
