BERLIN — An economic slump, an immigration crisis and the lifting of a security blanket provided for decades by its most powerful ally are on the minds of German voters as they head to the polls for Sunday's national parliamentary election.
The general election of the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, was not supposed to come until September of this year. But on Nov. 6, just a day after American voters elected Donald Trump to a second term in office, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister after months of squabbling over how to revive Germany's struggling economy, leading to the collapse of Scholz's three-party coalition government and the call for a snap election.
The latest polling data shows Scholz's Social Democrats in third place among voters (16%), behind the far-right Alternative for Germany or AfD Party (20%) and the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) alongside its Bavarian sister CSU party (29%).
The CDU will likely emerge as the largest vote-getter and thus be in the position of forming a coalition government with one or two other parties. Since all of Germany's mainstream parties have vowed not to govern with the AfD, which is under domestic surveillance for the threat it poses to Germany's democracy, the CDU's candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, may have a difficult time forming a coalition government.
"I'm just worried that after the election that it will take maybe two months for a coalition government to form," says Jana Puglierin, director of the Berlin office at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Once the coalition is in place, they need to draft a budget. And if we are very lucky, all of this will be done before the parliamentary summer break."
The expected drawn-out German political timetable worries observers because of the next government's urgency to deal with multiple crises that face Europe's largest economy. These include an economic recession, a national debate over migration, and, perhaps most importantly, how to navigate a new global security order now that the Trump administration appears to be working with Russia to bring an end to Moscow's war in Ukraine without inviting Europe or Ukraine to the negotiating table.
Whichever parties form the next coalition government in Berlin, Merz remains Scholz's likely successor. He is a 69-year-old conservative who hails from a family of lawyers. In addition to serving as a CDU member of parliament, Merz has also worked as a corporate lawyer and as a member of the supervisory board for the German branch of Blackrock, the largest asset management company in the world.
Merz's longtime colleague Norbert Röttgen, who also serves as a CDU member of Germany's parliament, says Merz is a politician of conviction. Röttgen has known Merz for more than 30 years. The two entered parliament together and have worked side by side through successive governments. He says Merz has strong beliefs: "Societally conservative, traditional values and a strong, free-market conviction that liberal markets serve the people," says Röttgen. "And he is a fundamental pro-European trans-Atlanticist."
Röttgen says Merz's convictions will prove useful as Germany is faced with difficult decisions after the United States has signaled changes in how it sees its European allies.
The outgoing administration has not helped build a cohesive way forward for Europe on Ukraine, Puglierin says. "I think Merz, by disposition, would be more open to also support Ukraine more decisively," says Puglierin. "But he has to work in a framework. He will be constrained by his coalition partner and also by the German population."
After coalition talks and tackling a budget that the Scholz administration left on the table, it might take months before Merz has the opportunity to put his mark on Germany, Puglierien says.
Hints of how he will lead, though, have trickled out in recent weeks, as Merz got into trouble with his own party when he agreed to work with the AfD late last month to pass a motion that would have toughened up Germany's immigration policy. The motion failed after significant backlash against Merz for agreeing to work with a party seen by mainstream political parties as anti-democratic.
Voter Ute Wolters, a 64-year-old architect from Lower Saxony, worries about Merz's potential leadership. "He claims to be up to the job, and we know he's a good businessman, but I worry he will go back on his promise to never enter into a coalition government with the AfD," she says, referring to repeated vows Merz has made throughout the campaign.
Another voter, Ulrich Hinz, a 74-year-old retired businessman from Frankfurt, says he thinks Merz's pro-European outlook could help at such a trying time for Germany.
"We need a chancellor and a government that is more European and one that can get along better with the French, Italians and the Poles," he says. "That's the only way we are going to be able to keep up with China, Russia, and the United States."
Esme Nicholson contributed to this story from Berlin.
Copyright 2025 NPR
