KYIV, TBILISI AND PARIS — Nearly every day for the last three years, Russian drones and missiles have hit Ukraine, striking power plants, hospitals, schools and homes.
"This is part of our life," says Volodymyr Silvanovskyi, a 63-year-old customs official from the northeastern city of Sumy. "And then the day comes when your home is the target."
A few weeks ago, a Russian drone ripped into the apartment building where Silvanovskyi lives. He was turning off the TV to go to bed when the blast blew out his windows and jammed his front door shut. He forced his way out with a hammer, then checked on his neighbors, a couple in their 60s, only to see their entire apartment caved in. He found out later that they were among nine residents killed in the attack.
"This happens every day, everywhere in Ukraine," he says.
Thousands of civilians have been killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Ukrainians want the war to end, but not on Russia's terms. That would be rewarding the aggressor, they say, and an unequal peace deal could lead to more war. Yet Russia's bargaining power has increased with President Trump returning to the White House last month.
Trump came to office with vows to end the war quickly — and he is acting on them. First there was a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Within days, American and Russian delegations were gathered in Saudi Arabia to begin to talk specifics. The meetings last week marked the first direct high-level contact between the two sides since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion — and a stark shift in U.S. policy.
The sudden return of U.S.-Russian diplomacy after years of absence has stunned Ukraine and America's traditional allies in Europe — who have been sidelined from negotiations for now. President Trump's false claims that Ukraine bore responsibility for starting the war are further cause for concern among Ukrainians and Europeans that the American leader is eyeing a resolution heavily tilted in Moscow's favor.
As negotiations move forward, here are key developments to keep an eye on — both regarding the war and efforts to end it.
U.S.-Russia détente
President Trump and Putin are both praising the Saudi talks, which took place Feb. 17, as a positive step toward normalizing ties between Washington and Moscow.
The apparent détente marks a drastic departure in U.S. policy toward the Kremlin: The Biden White House had sought to isolate and sanction Russia over its full-scale invasion of its neighbor. In contrast, President Trump has reached out to Moscow to work together to end the war and repair relations.
For now, that means an agreement to increase staff levels at embassies and explore what Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls "incredible economic and investment opportunities" — an acknowledgement that sanctions relief is on offer.
The two sides agreed to continue negotiations on Ukraine. Also under discussion: a series of face-to-face meetings between Trump and Putin, including possibly in Moscow and Washington, in the coming weeks or months.
Ukraine losing an ally?
Meanwhile, Ukrainians are bewildered, wondering how the U.S. went so quickly from isolating the Kremlin to appearing to embrace it.
The Trump administration's decision to thaw U.S. ties with Russia is a blow to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has been trying to forge a new relationship with Trump despite a challenging history that dates back to Trump's first term and Ukraine's role in his impeachment.
While Trump was a candidate in last year's presidential election, Zelenskyy approached him with a plan to exchange some of Ukraine's critical raw materials for continued military aid.
A deal is under negotiation, but Ukraine was not included in talks between Russia and the U.S. last week. Trump is now repeating Kremlin talking points — that Ukraine, not Russia, started the war; that Zelenskyy is an illegitimate leader unpopular with Ukrainians. Zelenskyy, who was elected in 2019 and has a 63% approval rating, publicly responded that Trump "lives in a disinformation space."
Meanwhile, at least one member of the Trump team, the president's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, praised Zelenskyy as a "courageous leader" after meeting him in Kyiv last week.
Europe's plan
Europe has given more in wartime aid collectively to Ukraine than the U.S. — a fact EU leaders argue earns Europe a role in negotiations that could influence the future of the continent.
French President Emmanuel Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer are floating the idea of sending British peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. NATO member states are also offering to increase the percentage of their GDP spent on defense.
If the U.S. decreases or stops providing military aid to Ukraine, Europe may be able to make up some of the difference. However, the picture for Europe becomes more complicated if Ukraine is forced to accept a ceasefire deal that favors Russia. Europe will need an estimated 300,000 more troops and an annual defense spending hike of more than $360 billion to deter Russia from further aggression, according to a joint report by the Bruegel Institute in Brussels and the Kiel Institute in Germany.
Elie Tenenbaum of the Security Studies Center at the French Institute of International Relations, says Europeans fear the Trump administration will bypass them and try to strong-arm Ukraine in negotiating a deal with Russia to end the war.
"It's their worst nightmare," he said.
European Union leaders and allies have already met twice in the last week to address the crisis and have said publicly that they want to be involved in negotiations to end the war.
Macron, who has long advocated for a strong European defense independent of the U.S., is in Washington on Monday to meet with Trump. Starmer is also expected in Washington this week.
Where the war stands
When Russia launched its "special military operation" in Ukraine in 2022, it expected a quick victory along the lines of Moscow's blitz seizure of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Instead, the conflict has settled into a war of attrition — with hundreds of thousands dead or injured on both sides.
Over the past year, Russian troops have made small but steady advances against overstretched Ukrainian forces — with both sides suffering significant losses. Russia has also repeatedly attacked Ukraine's energy grid, destroying much of it.
Ukraine has struck back, hitting Russia's oil depots. After months of hand-wringing, the Biden administration finally allowed Kyiv late last year to use American-donated weapons to strike inside Russia proper. Zelenskyy said in an interview earlier this year that this has helped hit weapons stockpiles and control centers, squeezing Russia's war machine.
Currently, Russia holds around 20% of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean peninsula. The Kremlin also claims to have formally annexed four additional regions of Ukraine — none of which its forces fully control.
Ukraine holds a sliver of Russian territory seized by its forces in a cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August 2024. Zelenskyy has made clear he sees the territory as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.
The negotiations
The contours of a negotiated peace are anyone's guess.
Trump-nominated negotiators — including his national security advisor Mike Waltz — say it will be a mix of security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial concessions on all sides. But President Trump has gone on record ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine and has called Kyiv's desire to take back seized territory impractical — in effect, critics say, bowing to two key Russian demands before negotiations ever began. Administration officials counter that they are simply being realistic.
Trump's new insistence that Zelenskyy is a "dictator without elections" also dovetails with Kremlin talking points aimed at undermining the Ukrainian president's legitimacy.
Meanwhile, with Russian forces gaining ground, the Kremlin may not see a need to negotiate on what it believes it can achieve on the battlefield. Already, Russia appears to be hardening its stance: Moscow has ruled out any peacekeepers from NATO-member countries in monitoring any peace settlement.
President Putin and his entourage have repeatedly insisted any settlement take into account "the root of the conflict" — Russian-speak for a new vision of a European security arrangement built around a neutered NATO presence in central and northern Europe. If Trump reduces the American troop presence in Europe — as some Europeans fear — Russia might just get its wish.
Yet there are some reasons to think the Kremlin, too, might want a ceasefire sooner rather than later. Sustaining the conflict beyond this year will require additional troops — and possibly an unpopular mass mobilization. Russia's economy also looks increasingly volatile: it has weathered Western sanctions thus far, but Russian economists point to spiraling interest rates and inflation as signs that a reckoning is coming.
NPR's Joanna Kakissis reported from Kyiv, Charles Maynes reported from Tbilisi and Eleanor Beardsley reported from Paris. NPR producer Polina Lytvynova contributed reporting from Kyiv and Tetiana Burianova contributed from Sumy.
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