LONDON — In the five weeks since President Trump took office, the Atlantic Ocean has rarely looked wider.
A chasm has opened between the United States and its European allies over Trump's handling of Ukraine, Russia, Gaza and cross-border trade.
The U.S. is the European Union's biggest trading partner, and this month it hit European and other countries with 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. Trump is threatening more, saying the European Union has been "very unfair" to America.
On Feb. 14, Vice President JD Vance gave what analysts called an "extremely confrontational" speech to U.S. allies at the Munich Security Conference, declaring there was a "new sheriff in town" and accusing European leaders of censoring right-wing voices — comments that drew strong rebukes.
And last week, European leaders were aghast as the Trump administration held talks with Russia toward a possible peace deal for Ukraine — without Ukraine or any of its European neighbors at the table. Members of the Trump administration have cast doubt on European security as a priority. And the U.S. and Ukraine are negotiating a deal over rare earth mineral resources in exchange for war aid already given, with President Trump citing a price tag much higher than the actual amount.
Many European leaders consider the deal Trump is offering Ukraine unfair, and worry that an emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin might invade more of their neighbors. After President Trump called Putin earlier this month, Elie Tenenbaum, a security expert at the French Institute for International Relations, told NPR that European leaders were facing a "nightmare scenario."
Into this scenario now walks a mild-mannered former human rights lawyer who's been the United Kingdom's prime minister for just over six months: Keir Starmer.
Starmer, a centrist, will be in Washington on Thursday, following Monday's White House visit by French President Emmanuel Macron. Starmer, analysts say, will be hoping his announcement of a landmark increase in U.K. defense spending on the eve of his visit will send a signal to Washington that Britain is willing to lead in boosting Europe's security — and will help ease relations with the president, who has long demanded NATO allies contribute more to Europe's defense.
Starmer said Tuesday that Britain would increase its defense spending to 2.5% of economic output by 2027, telling the House of Commons that it marked the biggest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War. The U.K. will slash its aid budget to pay for this new expenditure.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth welcomed the news, calling it a "strong step from an enduring partner" in a social media post.
Aides say the prime minister will try to leverage the so-called "special relationship" between the U.K. and U.S. and act as a "bridge" between the Trump administration and its increasingly disgruntled allies on the other side of the Atlantic.
"A go-between who understands both the United States and Europe. Through my whole career in diplomacy, that was how we saw ourselves, even though some others didn't," says Simon McDonald, a member of the House of Lords who served as the most senior civil servant in the U.K. Foreign Office during Trump's first administration. "With this new Trump administration, perhaps that old way of seeing ourselves can come into its own."
But can Starmer find common ground?
What Starmer wants to accomplish in Washington
Starmer would like to get a British exemption from the 25% tariffs Trump has imposed on global steel and aluminum imports, which U.K. steelmakers have called a "devastating blow." They are due to go into effect next month.
He may also try to sway Trump from his plan to turn the Gaza Strip into what the president called a "Riviera of the Middle East," and will underscore British support for a two-state solution that includes the right for Palestinians to stay on their land or return to it after it's rebuilt.
But Starmer's overwhelming priority, analysts say, is to nudge Trump toward what he and European leaders see as fairer terms for Ukraine in talks toward ending the war there.
"This is about helping Trump understand that a bad deal in Ukraine creates all kinds of existential risks not only for Ukraine but also for Europe and ultimately for America," says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, a risk analysis firm. "A rogue Russia unleashed and unrestrained in Europe could also be a big problem for Trump and his own credibility."
Framing it in terms of risks for the U.S., rather than Europe, might be one way to try to sway Trump, Rahman says.
How to approach the U.S. president
Starmer, who in 2016 said he "would not want to have Donald Trump round for dinner," actually had a two-hour dinner with him at New York's Trump Tower last September. Starmer was accompanied then — as he will be likely this week as well — by U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who once called Trump a "woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath."
This will be their first White House meeting during Trump's second term. And despite Elon Musk's trolling of Starmer, the U.S. president has said, "I get along with him well. I like him a lot."
While the E.U.'s top diplomat has accused Trump of "appeasement" with Putin, Starmer has shied away from any public rebuke of Trump ahead of their White House meeting.
"Starmer seems to have a better relationship with Donald Trump," says Karin von Hippel, a former State Department official and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a nonpartisan security and defense think tank based in London. "He may be able to say, 'Look, the Europeans are in a tizzy right now. They're overdoing it, and I can help calm them down.'"
Brexit might even help.
What's Brexit got to do with it?
Britain's exit from the European Union, which took effect in January 2020, has not been what many Britons expected. The U.K. economy is floundering. But Brexit may help Starmer distance himself from Europe in Trump's eyes.
"Trump clearly doesn't like the European Union. The fact that the United Kingdom has seen things his way [by leaving the E.U.], I think bolsters the United Kingdom in [Trump's] eyes," McDonald says.
Starmer took office last summer promising to "reset" relations with the E.U., which were damaged by Brexit. But now he finds himself trying to salvage relations with another ally, the U.S., as well.
"I think the U.K. does have a balancing act to play. Starmer wants to reset with Europe in a way that doesn't annoy Trump, and he wants to engage with the U.S. in a way that doesn't annoy the Europeans," the Eurasia Group's Rahman says.
It could put him on neutral ground between the two.
What can Starmer offer Trump?
The next U.K. election isn't expected until 2029. So Starmer is likely to be in office for Trump's entire four-year term. Analysts say that could be an asset for Trump — seeing Starmer as a fixture he can rely on and work with long-term.
Starmer has offered to send British troops to Ukraine as part of any future peace deal. And he's echoed Trump's call for more U.K. and European defense spending.
There's also some British hospitality he might offer Trump, in the form of the Royal Family. In 2019, during his first administration, Trump was guest of honor at a state banquet at Buckingham Palace hosted by Queen Elizabeth II. By all accounts, he loved it.
"He was having the time of his life! Her late majesty was someone he clearly respected, and that was a high point for the president," recalls McDonald, the former diplomat, who was present for that 2019 visit.
McDonald says he expects King Charles III to invite Trump for a similar visit soon. Trump also has "a soft spot" for Scotland, where his mother was born, and where the Trump conglomerate runs golf courses, McDonald notes. These topics could be "icebreakers" for Starmer before launching into policy discussions, he says.
During the last Trump administration, the U.S. president developed a reputation for seeing the world in a transactional way. Even allies grew accustomed to having to offer Trump something in return for his diplomacy. But Rahman says those days are over — at least when it comes to Ukraine.
"Trump is not transactional when it comes to security. He's predatory. He's offering Ukraine a colonial deal that would extract its minerals in support for, not future aid, but for aid that has already been provided," he says.
Trump has been repeating Kremlin talking points. That's a "strategic win for Putin and a strategic setback for Europe and the U.K.," Rahman says.
High stakes
One U.K. political column last week was headlined: "Starmer's future will be made in America." Commentators say this White House meeting may be the most important of his political life. Much is at stake.
Last week, after Trump labeled Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections," Starmer phoned the Ukrainian leader within hours to repudiate the U.S. president's remarks. Starmer told Zelenskyy it was "perfectly reasonable" to delay elections during wartime — just as Britain had done in World War II.
Trump might resent that, analysts speculate. He might also be irritated by Starmer's call for some kind of U.S. "backstop" security guarantee for Ukraine.
Another source of tension could be trade. Including all goods and services, the U.K. has a trade surplus with the U.S. But by removing services from that equation and counting physical goods such as steel and aluminum, on which Trump's new tariffs are to take effect in March, then the U.S. sells more to the U.K.
That nuance is something Starmer will be trying to convey to Trump, in hopes of winning an exemption from current tariffs and avoiding any additional ones.
The biggest risk for Starmer, analysts say, is that no amount of flattery or emphasis on the historical "special relationship" may be enough to sway Trump away from trade wars and toward a foreign policy that's more sympathetic to the U.K. and Europe.
"I don't think Trump has traditional views about alliances and partners. He has disparaged traditional allies and cozied up to dictators," says von Hippel, the former State Department official. "So he may have a soft spot for the U.K. But he's not going to let that interfere with his agenda."
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