AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
In Venezuela, two men are competing to be sworn in as president next month. Edmundo Gonzalez won this summer's election but was forced into exile. He's vowing to return home to take the oath of office. But authoritarian leader Nicolas Maduro is also claiming victory and warning Gonzalez to stay away. Reporter John Otis has more.
JOHN OTIS, BYLINE: Voter tally sheets from the July election show that Gonzalez trounced Maduro by a 2-to-1 margin. Maduro responded with a brutal crackdown that landed more than 2,000 people in jail and prompted Gonzalez to seek safe haven in Spain. But with the January 10 inauguration day approaching, Gonzalez, a 75-year-old former diplomat, made this dramatic announcement.
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EDMUNDO GONZALEZ: (Non-English language spoken).
OTIS: "I don't have my plane ticket yet," he told the Spanish news agency EFE, "but the plan is to return to Caracas on January 10 to take over as president." The Maduro regime responded in typical fashion, by vowing to arrest Gonzalez if he sets foot on Venezuelan territory.
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DIOSDADO CABELLO: (Non-English language spoken).
OTIS: On his weekly TV show, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello brandished a set of handcuffs that he said would be used to manacle Gonzalez as he's dragged off to prison. Due to these threats, analysts say a triumphant homecoming for Gonzalez is unlikely. Maduro controls the armed forces and is turning a once-democratic country into a totalitarian state.
ANDRES IZARRA: He has the power of the army. I mean, the army supports him because they are partners in crime.
OTIS: That's Andres Izarra, who briefly served as Maduro's tourism minister. He pointed out that if Maduro left office, he and his inner circle could face long prison terms for torture, drug trafficking and corruption.
IZARRA: That is not going to happen. They are not going to give up power, never.
OTIS: Even so, Maduro's blowout loss and clumsy electoral theft were deeply embarrassing for the ruling Socialist Party, which has held power for the past quarter century. So says Javier Corrales, a Venezuela expert at Amherst College.
JAVIER CORRALES: They are going to have conversations as to what do we do next, what did we do wrong, who is responsible for the mess that we're in.
OTIS: Such a reckoning could prompt regime figures to move against Maduro, says Ryan Berg of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
RYAN BERG: And if you're looking to the future of stability of that regime, Maduro is not a very attractive figure to lead you into the future.
OTIS: Izarra says that while his former boss will never willingly step down, dictators like Maduro are often weaker than they seem. He pointed to the lightning-fast rebel offensive that ousted Bashar al-Assad in Syria, a turn of events that took the world by surprise.
IZARRA: Assad was, you know, in total control of Syria, wasn't he? And look what happened.
OTIS: Still, Maduro has often proved his skeptics wrong. Many thought his days were numbered in 2019, when, under President Trump, the U.S. and more than 50 other nations recognized opposition lawmaker Juan Guaido, who had proclaimed himself as Venezuela's rightful leader.
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DONALD TRUMP: Joining us in the gallery is the true and legitimate president of Venezuela, Juan Guaido.
OTIS: Maduro survived the diplomatic isolation, and Guaido, who had no real power, eventually went into exile. Even so, the U.S. is now trying something similar with Gonzalez. It has recognized him as Venezuela's president-elect and is pushing allies to follow suit, even if Gonzalez is never able to set foot inside the presidential palace in Caracas. Berg thinks it's worth a try.
BERG: This isn't just a Guaido 2.0 situation. This is a guy who won an election, and we have the proof that he won the election.
OTIS: As a result, come January 10, Venezuela could once again have dueling presidents. For NPR News, I'm John Otis. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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