AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
President Trump's decision to bomb Iran will all but surely go down as a defining moment of his presidency. The consequences of American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities will be felt in the region and beyond for years to come. Daniel Shapiro was the U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration and deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under President Biden. He joins us now. Good morning.
DANIEL SHAPIRO: Good morning, Ayesha. Thanks for having me.
RASCOE: I have to ask you - was bombing Iran last night the right decision?
SHAPIRO: You know, I think there could have been a bit more time for diplomacy. Obviously, even President Trump seemed to indicate that the initial 60-day window he had made for the talks, he had additional talks extended out beyond that. The Israelis came to him and said they don't think they can wait any longer. And he had an opportunity to give the prime minister of Israel a red light and say, not now - I need more time. But he didn't do that.
But once we were in that situation, I think this was likely to happen. Actually, I do think those talks were likely to produce a crisis and that this was basically inevitable. I thought it would come a little later in the year. But because of the way the Iranian program has advanced - the IEA has documented that they were at 10 bombs' worth of near-weapons-grade uranium that they could enrich all the way to weapons-grade very quickly, and they were making progress on weaponizing - that at some point, this is just too close for comfort for a country that has sponsored terrorism, that has directly attacked Israel twice in the last year, to allow them to sit at that threshold of nuclear capability.
RASCOE: Now that it has happened, what do you think comes next from Iran? Because, you know, President Trump is saying, make peace or face more attacks. Iran is diminished because of the war in Gaza. Its allies are now not at the capability that they were before. It has issues, but is it going to strike back? And what could that look like?
SHAPIRO: So Iran certainly is weakened and certainly is capable of striking back. Both are true. I think what's always been true is that the Iranian regime prioritizes the preservation of the regime more than anything. This is not about regime change. It shouldn't be. No U.S. official that I know of has said that's the goal, and I don't think we should get pulled into that.
However, what President Trump said last night was important - and I think it was reiterated at the Pentagon this morning - which is that if Iran chooses to attack or use its proxies to attack U.S. forces in the region, U.S. personnel or even our partners and allies, particularly in the Gulf, there's going to be a very strong response to that. There needs to be a strong message of deterrence. And there's a way that they - if they need to respond, and they probably do, they can do it in a more symbolic way - a way that puts us on a de-escalatory path rather than an escalatory path.
Just remember - in 2020, when President Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the IRGC commander, Iran did respond, but they responded with one strike on one base. There were U.S. wounded in that strike. But it was - it sort of brought us toward a downward stream on that conflict rather than an escalatory one. So that's what we need to get them on.
RASCOE: How can you get to an agreement or this de-escalatory phase if there's no trust between the two sides?
SHAPIRO: It's difficult, and we'll need help. We'll need help from our European partners. We'll need help from our Gulf partners. They all have different kinds of relationships with Iran than we do. But there's also an opportunity to, as we sometimes say in diplomacy, expand the pie, right? Instead of just coming to Iran and saying, now capitulate; now accept all the terms you wouldn't accept in the previous negotiations - which they, of course, will need to accept - there are other things that can be done.
They could make some additional commitments about ending their support for these terrorist organizations. But in return for that, there's an opportunity for greater sanctions relief for them. And sanctions relief could be very valuable to a regime that's under stress, that is concerned about how it's going to survive and how it's going to present to its own people that they got something for all of the trouble they've put them through over the last several decades, really.
RASCOE: Quickly, is there a danger that Iran and other powers in the region will now think they must get nuclear weapons?
SHAPIRO: There's always a danger that people will view nuclear weapons as the capability that makes you invulnerable. But in a way, that's why this had to happen, because if Iran had crossed that threshold, we would find ourselves with a country we really could not control and respond to in the same way.
RASCOE: That's Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel. Thank you so much for joining us.
SHAPIRO: Thanks very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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