One thing was clear — it was a big night for Democrats.
Up and down the ballot, Democrats did well. That was true whether it was the marquee governors' races in Virginia and New Jersey, where Democrats significantly outperformed 2024 presidential election margins, or even less-closely-watched races like the Virginia House of Delegates, the state supreme court in Pennsylvania and even Georgia Public Service Commission.
And the outcomes very well may have consequences in the near term, for things like the federal government shutdown, in the medium term for the 2026 midterm elections and in the longer term for 2028.
Here are five takeaways from the 2025 off-year elections:
1. It's still the cost of living, stupid.
The old political axiom, coined by former Bill Clinton adviser James Carville is, "It's the economy, stupid." Well, over the last couple of years, more specifically that should be, "It's the cost of living, stupid." Whether it was Democratic President Joe Biden or now Republican President Trump, prices and affordability have proven to be voting motivators.
But Trump has largely ignored it, saying he always felt immigration was more motivating. That came back to bite his party Tuesday night.
The exit polls found that in all four major contests — the governors' races in Virginia and New Jersey, the New York mayor's race and the Proposition 50 battle in California — voters said the economy was the most important issue (or close to it in New Jersey), and they sided with Democrats overwhelmingly.
And that's despite Republicans being seen Tuesday night as best on the issue of crime or immigration in these elections (counting Trump-endorsed Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent in New York).
That's a very bad sign for Republicans and Trump, who clearly now own the economy, despite how much the president continues to try to blame his predecessor.
2. Republicans still have a Trump problem — in two different ways
The president is unpopular and a drag on his party when he's not on the ballot, but also, when he's not on the ballot, the GOP can't seem to turn out conservatives.
Trump's numbers with independents haven't been good since early on in his second term as president, as lots of them disapprove of the job he's doing on the economy and think he's gone too far with how he's approached a policy of mass deportations.
In these elections, according to the exit polls, as of 1 a.m. ET — independents made up a third of the electorate in Virginia, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger won those voters by 19 points in the governor's race. It was a similar story in New Jersey, where they made up 31% and went for Democrat Mikie Sherrill by 13 points.
It's a real quandary for Republicans. It was true during his first term as president, too, that in these non-presidential election years, Trump brings people out to the polls in the wrong way for the GOP. If you're a Republican, that has to be figured out. But so few want to cross Trump, and show a public break with him, that that's unlikely to happen anytime soon for the party en masse.
It's something to watch heading into next year's midterms and into 2028 when Trump is constitutionally ineligible to run again.
3. The Trump slump with Latinos appears to be real
Trump made significant inroads with Latinos during the 2024 presidential election. In fact, no Republican presidential candidate won a higher percentage with Latinos — ever.
But there have been signs that Latinos were moving away from Trump. Poll after poll has shown that, and Tuesday night was the first time it showed up at the ballot box in a significant way. Spanberger and Sherrill, the governors-elect from Virginia and New Jersey respectively, both won Latinos by 2-to-1 margins, according to the exit polls.
Going deeper into New Jersey specifically, Trump won Passaic County in North Jersey, a county that is nearly half Latino, according to the census. He was the first Republican presidential candidate to win it since 1992. Trump won it by 3 points, but Sherrill won it by 15.
There are 10 counties in New Jersey where Latinos make up at least 1-in-5 people, per the U.S. census. Sherrill not only won them all, she expanded Democratic margins and flipped three Trump had won.
For a couple of decades — since Latinos have become a significant political force given their population boom in the country — they had been reliable Democratic voters. But they have increasingly become a bloc that is not necessarily loyal to either party.
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They're particularly worried — like lots of other voters — about the cost of living. And many Latino leaders, including in the Republican Party, have voiced concerns about Trump's approach to immigration — casting a far-wider net than just hardened criminals.
Tuesday's result is likely going to have a lot of smart conservatives privately questioning Trump's policies and biting their nails about winning the group back for their races next year, as they try to hold onto the House.
4. The redistricting arms race is on, and Democrats got a boost Tuesday on that front
Practically, maybe the most consequential election Tuesday was the Proposition 50 ballot initiative in California. A yes vote on Prop 50 would temporarily overturn the requirement that California draw its congressional districts via independent commission.
That's exactly what happened — and it wasn't even close.
That wasn't guaranteed at the beginning of this effort a few months ago. It was spearheaded by California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, and with the help of a lot of money and high-profile Democrats like former President Barack Obama, they successfully made it a proxy fight with Trump. They convinced California Democrats that this was necessary to counterbalance Trump's demands on red states, like Texas, to squeeze out more Republican congressional districts to try to ensure GOP control of the House next year.
Now, California is set to redraw its congressional maps, which likely will result in more Democratic seats.
If that wasn't politically significant enough, there was also how Newsom positioned himself. While taking a victory lap, he tried to show he's a Democrat looking to counterbalance Trump not just with congressional districts but as a leader.
Newsom called it a "good night" for the Democratic Party, one on the "ascendancy," and "on its toes rather than on its heels." Newsom also chided Trump, calling him "historically unpopular," that he "promised to make us healthier and wealthier," but "we're sicker and poorer" and that Trump knows his unpopular position. "Why else," Newsom asked, would Trump try to get more seats out of Texas except to try to "rig" next year's elections? Newsom boasted of his state standing "firm in response" to Trump.
Democrats have made clear they want a fighter, someone willing to stand up to Trump in any way possible, someone with the guts to, say, bend the rules a little the way Trump might. One wonders who Newsom thinks should lead this "ascendant" party?
5. The Democratic Party will have to wrestle with its identity over the next year
There are plenty of people in the party with different ideas on how to lead the party, push a message of affordability and stand up to Trump in the process.
That brings us to Zohran Mamdani.
No one has captured more attention during this election cycle than Mamdani. The 34-year-old, who is set to become the youngest New York City mayor in more than a century, and the first Muslim to serve in that office, has become a star with progressives — and a villain among conservatives.
Conservatives are very good at creating Democratic bogeymen, and they will try their hardest to make Mamdani, a self-avowed Democratic socialist, the face of the party. Mamdani has plenty of political gifts. The campaign he ran was unique in its ability to reach out to younger voters in authentic ways and on social media. And, unlike a lot of Democrats, who have a hard time squeezing their policy proposals onto a bumper sticker, he was able to communicate his message of affordability clearly.
But he also did nothing to calm his critics Tuesday night. His victory speech was bold and defiant, even beginning by quoting Eugene Debs, a committed socialist who created the Socialist Party of America. The cover of the conservative New York Post Wednesday depicts Mamdani holding up a hammer and sickle, a communist symbol, with the headline: "THE RED APPLE."
He reached out to Jewish New Yorkers in his speech, saying he would aim to fight the "scourge of antisemitism." And he also poked the White House hive. Speaking directly to Trump, he urged him to "turn the volume up" before lambasting him over income inequality, union rights and his view of immigrants.
All night, Fox News opted to talk about "Commie" Mamdani instead of taking victory speeches from Spanberger and Sherrill. Both women cut a different political profile: both have military or law enforcement backgrounds and tried to reach out to their opponents' voters. So, a large swath of the country on the right didn't hear a Democrat wishing her opponent well, praising her military service and saying she wants to be governor for everyone in the state.
Instead, they were served a heavy dose of red scare.
But is Mamdani now the face, or the "soul" of the Democratic Party? New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who also describes herself as a Democratic socialist and was an early Mamdani backer, was asked about that on MSNBC Tuesday night.
"I don't think that our party needs to have one face," she said. "Our country does not have one face. It's about all of us as a team together. And we all understand the assignment. Our assignment everywhere is to send the strongest fighters for the working class wherever possible. In some places, like Virginia, for the gubernatorial seat, that's going to look like Abigail Spanberger. In New York City, unequivocally, it's Zohran Mamdani."
Again, it's the cost of living and affordability that's key. Can Republicans effectively make the next year a debate between capitalism and socialism — or will Democrats be able to band together and sell something on the economy that's better than what's currently in control of Washington?
That's going to be a key question for the 2026 midterms, which kick off now.
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