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The Iran war has been catastrophic for global oil and gas supplies, sending prices soaring. Drivers are paying a steep price at the pump every time they fuel up.
Now, a host of other unexpected shortages and price spikes are starting to pop up, which stand to affect people's lives and pocketbooks.
In South Korea, the president urged citizens to take shorter showers to save energy. Butter chicken has disappeared from some restaurant menus in India because it needs to simmer for a long time, which is a challenge when there's a shortage of cooking gas. In the Philippines, the government asked officials to reduce electricity usage by taking the stairs instead of elevators.
Here are some of the ways that shortages may affect people in the near future.
Your beer and soda cans could cost more
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Aluminum prices recently hit a four-year high, after Iran struck two large smelters of the metal in the Middle East. Both of them were major suppliers to the United States. Aluminum, which is on the list of 60 minerals deemed critical by the U.S. government, is widely used for beer and soda cans, in cars and packaging.
Birthday balloons and smartphones need helium
The U.S. is the world's biggest helium exporter, but Qatar makes about a third of the global supply — and it's stopped producing and shipping the gas because of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. So far, the shortage is being felt most acutely in South Korea and Taiwan.
Helium is used in MRI scanners and for propelling rockets. It is also used in manufacturing the semiconductor chips that are needed for computers and phones. Scotten W. Jones, president of TechInsights Semiconductor Manufacturing Economics, says a prolonged shortage will be of concern: "If helium doubled [or] quadrupled in price, it wouldn't impact semiconductors a whole lot … If it went up 10-100 X, then it would start to be a big problem."
Fewer crops are being planted, which might lead to food scarcity
About a third of all fertilizer shipped globally goes through the Strait of Hormuz because Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran are big global producers. Some plants in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan have stopped fertilizer production entirely because of a shortage of natural gas. It's triggered a 25% price hike in fertilizer and comes at a time when U.S. farmers are planting corn.
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Pennsylvania farmer Rick Telesz said the cost of his nitrogen fertilizer has gone from $500 to $850 a ton since the war started, so he's planting less. He says he'll probably have to cut his fertilizer tonnage by at least 30%. "I'll be lucky to recover my costs," he says.
The Fertilizer Institute, an agricultural association, predicts that American farmers are going to be short of some 2 million tons of fertilizer this spring, so they will plant fewer crops — and this will likely happen all around the world. That will affect global food production. So even though the consequences aren't going to be immediate, they could be substantial, according to Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute.
The cost of buying a home is going up again
The war has driven up the cost of borrowing, including mortgage rates. Days before the war began, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell below 6% for the first time in over two years. But since then, rates have shot back up to just under 6.5%.
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Mortgage rates tend to follow the bond market, particularly 10-year Treasury notes. Because of increased uncertainty from the war, the cost of borrowing has gone up.
A key component of batteries is costing more
Sulfur is not something most people have on their shopping lists, but it's a key component for many industrial processes, including in the manufacturing of semiconductors, batteries and other high-tech materials. It's typically produced as a byproduct of oil refining — and significant amounts pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a company that monitors prices in the battery supply chain, says the shipping disruption could put upward pressure on sulfur prices. Benchmark notes that unlike oil and natural gas, you can't put sulfur in a pipeline as a workaround to avoid the strait.
Plastics are in everything, so …
Oil isn't just burned as fuel. It's also used to make petrochemicals and plastics. And producers in the Persian Gulf are key suppliers for factories in Asia — which, in turn, supply the world with a vast array of goods. Petrochemical supply chains could take months to recover from the current disruption even if the strait reopens promptly, the CEO of Dow, the chemicals corporation, said at a recent conference.
Petrochemical prices are already rising even in the U.S., which has domestic sources; much like with oil, the U.S. is not fully insulated from global price shocks. Fritz O'Connor, the CEO of a company that acquires American manufacturers, sent NPR a statement predicting shortages of plastic pellets in the next month or two and as a result, "rising material costs" across different industries.
Some restaurants have shut down in India
In India, a cooking gas shortage is hitting households and restaurants, as well as factories, that use natural gas. Some people have panicked and started stocking up on gas canisters; meanwhile, restaurants have posted signs explaining that they have shut down or raised prices due to the shortage.
— Reporting from Lilly Quiroz, Camila Domonoske, Scott Horsley, Stephan Bisaha, Fatma Tanis, Omkar Khandekar and Frank Morris
— Graphics by Brent Jones
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