Fairbanks, AK - A report out Monday from the United Nations Environment Program urges policy makers and the general public to account for potential hazards of thawing permafrost. One UAF scientist co-authored the report. He believes at least half of the world’s permafrost will be thawing within the next century.
Several reports on risks associated with thawing permafrost and climate change have been published over the last five years. But University of Alaska, Fairbanks Professor Vladimir Romanovsky says none of them are as unique as one released this week. “The target of this report is politicians, the public, so this report was a challenge because we had to write in very simple words and we’re not accustomed to do it as scientists,” he says.
Romanovsky studies permafrost geophysics all over the world. Permafrost is land that remains frozen for at least two years. Roughly a quarter of the land surface in the Northern Hemisphere includes permafrost. In the report, Romanovsky and other scientists recommend that nations with permafrost, including the United States, Canada and Russia, set up monitoring networks and develop plans to deal with thaw.
“Lots of infrastructure already exists in permafrost regions," sya sRomanovsky, "but it’s developing very, very rapidly. There is another regional concern, which is how changes in permafrost will affect ecosystems. There is many concerns related to subsistence hunting and species distribution. All kinds of things which are a point of worry for people who live there.”
Permafrost is rich in frozen organic matter. According to the report, that organic matter holds 1700 gigatons of carbon. One gigaton equals a billion tons. Scientists estimate that air temperatures in the Arctic could increase by up to six degrees over the next century. If the permafrost starts to thaw because of the warming trend, all that organic matter will begin to decompose. Decomposition could mean the release of hundreds of gigatons of two major greenhouse gasses - carbon dioxide and methane - into the atmosphere.
Romanovsky believes that nearly 50 percent of the world’s permafrost could be thawing by the year 2100. Unfortunately, he says, unless you live this far north, it’s an unfamiliar problem. “Unfortunately there’s not so many people who live on permafrost," he says. "So, for most of the global community, permafrost is something very exotic. You know, something there in the north. How many people live there? A couple million. It’s a small piece.”
The report comes as industrialized nations consider a replacement for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The international agreement sets binding targets for greenhouse gas emissions among 37 nations, not including the United States. The next phase of the agreement begins in 2013.