That’s one question Alaska researchers are asking of a new heat pump prototype this winter.
The new LG model purports to heat homes effectively even at -30 degrees Fahrenheit, and may soon do so for hundreds of residents in northern Alaska.
Along with installing solar power systems and battery storage, heat pump deployment was one of three major components in a $55 million U.S. Department of Energy grant awarded to the Northwest Arctic Borough back in February.
That deployment is to the tune of 850 air source heat pumps installed in eleven different villages.
But before that grant-funded rollout begins, the borough must select which model to deploy. That means generating data and crunching numbers, said Ingemar Mathiasson, the Northwest Arctic Borough’s energy manager.
“We have now a test going on with an LG heat pump … that can go down to 30-, 40-below, and still produce 70 degrees inside the house,” Mathiasson said, referring to temperatures measured in degrees Fahrenheit. “And we’re gonna test one of those here through the rest of the winter. We’re installing it pretty quick here, and there’s also one in Fairbanks that’s being installed over there by NREL.”
A few hundred miles southeast of Mathiasson, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Chief Scientist Tom Marsik walks to the corner of a classroom on the second story of the lab’s main building. He points out the window.
“You can see it right here,” Marsik said as his footsteps echoed on the hard floor. “So that’s the outside unit of the heat pump,” he added, directing his gaze at a microwave-sized metal box with a fan on its backside.
Then his attention moved away from the snow-covered scenery outside the window.
“We can see the indoor unit hanging here on the wall, the indoor unit of the heat pump. We can see lines connecting it, going through the wall, connecting it to the outside unit,” he said.
A 6-foot collapsible table stands between Marsik and the eggshell-colored indoor unit. Some hand tools and wire are scattered across the table’s surface.
The setup wouldn’t look out of place in the garage of an avid do-it-yourselfer, but it’s exactly where the testing is happening this winter that will help determine whether – and how – the Northwest Arctic Borough will go about putting in and using hundreds of new heat pumps in the coming years.
“We are evaluating the preferments of this heat pump, so they can decide, is it really the model they want to use? And if so, then we can also provide guidelines for how to potentially operate it in the most beneficial way,” Marsik said.
Marsik explained that the technology works by capturing heat from the air – however cold the air may seem – and then sending it inside to warm up a space. The process is like refrigeration – which removes hot air from an enclosure to keep it cool – but in reverse.
“The coil of the outside unit is colder than the outside environment, that’s how it can extract the heat from that because heat flows, heat flows from hot to cold,” he said.
Heat pumps aren’t exactly new. In some fashion, they’ve been a part of the home-heating picture since the 1960s. But the technology is evolving, working at colder and colder temperatures, an earlier this year, the MIT Technological Review listed heat pumps as one of the 10 breakthrough technologies of 2024.
The LG prototype at NREL is designed to operate down to temperatures about 10 degrees Fahrenheit colder than the backup model for the Northwest Arctic Borough’s project, which is a Mitsubishi heat pump.
But, Mathiasson, the energy manager, said that capability could come with its own set of limitations the borough needs to assess before making a final selection on the model.
“It’s a new variation to be able to go down into the lower temperatures, but they also draw more power, so we want to measure how efficient they are and how well they can substitute for a Toyo stove or boiler in the house.”
That’s where the testing comes into play.
Throughout the Fairbanks winter, Marsik and others will keep tabs on how the LG prototype responds to natural fluctuations in the temperature outside. Also, to mimic differing levels of building insulation, they’ll pit the heat pump against a portable air conditioner that will run incrementally in the room. The U.S. Department of Energy is funding the $130,000 testing project.
“So we have put a bunch of sensors on the indoor unit and the outdoor unit to measure how much electrical energy we are putting into it and also how much heat this heat pump is supplying into this environment,” Marsik said.
Whichever model makes the cut, Mathiasson expects the installation of heat pumps to get underway this summer in villages already converted to renewable-centric microgrids.
“So that’s Shungnak and Kobuk and Noatak and Deering,” he said.
The heat pumps will then be deployed to the other villages, but only after their microgrids introduce solar power and battery storage to offset some diesel in the production of electricity.
“If you put heat pumps into the communities without the renewables, you’re actually going burn more diesel,” Mathiasson said, adding he expects the conversion to be complete by 2029.
Although their efficiency can decrease in extreme temperatures, heat pumps can generate about three to four times as much energy in the form of heat as they use in electricity. That’s why advocates say they’ll prove a critical tool for global decarbonization efforts.
The International Energy Agency says heat pumps currently supply about 10% of the world’s heating demand. To keep pace with the Net Zero by 2050 scenario, the IEA estimates that supply would need to hit 20% by 2030.
Upfront capital costs remain one of the bigger roadblocks for heat pumps, and after years of growth, global heat pump sales dropped by 3% in 2023.
But, in Alaska, 2024 held a couple policy-related developments for the technology. There’s the pending Northwest Arctic Borough rollout, and there’s the $39 million federal grant announced in July to help homeowners in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska purchase heat pumps.
So, for Mathiasson, at least, “It’s definitely the year of heat pumps for Alaska.”